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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.