A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
